Case 13Financial ForensicsFailure

WorldCom

WorldCom, Inc. · 1999–2002

Should the investment committee exit, reduce WorldCom to a de minimis verification position, hold, or add to its equity exposure?

At the decision boundary

WorldCom equity exposure decision at May 16, 2002

Decision time
May 16, 2002
Knowledge cutoff
May 16, 2002
Recommended path
Exit because the combination of below-investment-grade negative ratings, near-term refinancing dependence, a short receivables waiver, governance exposure, CEO turnover, weakening reported results and unverified financial reporting creates unacceptable common-equity downside. If execution or mandate constraints preclude full exit, retain at most a de minimis verification position and suspend all new exposure.
Confidence
Moderate

What happened

No action by the hypothetical committee is observable; WorldCom continued reporting until its June 25 disclosure and filed Chapter 11 on July 21, 2002, while customer and network operations continued as debtors in possession.

The hypothetical Part A process correctly separated as-reported facts from verification judgments, treated reported liquidity as conditional, preserved disconfirming cash and network evidence, abstained from a target price and chose loss avoidance without alleging misconduct. Its principal limitation is that public investors could identify a risk cluster but could not reproduce the internal audit from public evidence; the exact committee position and execution are unobserved.

Case inventory

What is inside

13source records
18financial tables
33material claims
3candidate rules

Transfer with care

Rule hypotheses from this case

All rule hypotheses →
Candidatemoderate confidence

rule.worldcom.verification-before-exposure

Suspend new equity exposure and require independent accounting, control, governance and financing verification; exit or reduce to a predeclared de minimis position when downside protection is not independently demonstrable.

Reporting opacity and refinancing dependence can reinforce each other, turning a control or confidence break into rapid loss of funding access and common-equity value.

Candidatehigh confidence

rule.worldcom.liquidity-is-conditional

Reconstruct accessible liquidity from signed commitments after collateral, covenants, borrowing bases, conditions, maturities and stressed operating needs; keep headline capacity and drawable availability separate.

A nominal facility can disappear or become uneconomic precisely when ratings, collateral or covenant conditions deteriorate.

Candidatemoderate confidence

rule.worldcom.separate-equity-from-operations

Analyze reporting integrity, legal capitalization, common-equity recovery, creditor claims and operating-asset value as separate layers before describing the entire business as worthless.

Debt priority, restatement, governance failure and reorganization can destroy existing equity while networks, contracts, customers and operating capabilities retain going-concern value.

Read against

A contrasting case sharpens the boundary.