Methods & disclosures

The archive is designed to show its seams.

Facts, calculations, company claims, judgments, unknowns, restatements, and later evidence are kept distinct.

01

Freeze the clock

Part A admits only material publicly available by the stated knowledge cutoff.

02

Trace the claim

Material assertions resolve to source records and exact evidence inside the private research system.

03

Preserve the unknown

Missing values remain “not established”; the website does not fill gaps with client-side estimates.

04

Bound the lesson

Part B records rivals, confounders, false positives, counterfactuals, and conditions that stop transfer.

Publication status

Owner-directed research release

Published at the corpus owner's direction for the exact release manifest bound below. Research status and machine warnings remain visible; publication does not convert candidate rules into validated rules. Human identity and authority remain external governance controls.

Snapshot status
Published
Research stage
54 / 54 research complete
Owner-directed at
2026-08-16
Release manifest
8dd40da63d…d44df8
Approved manifest
8dd40da63d…d44df8
PDF replay warnings
12 cases, disclosed individually
Public corpus hash
e76a85edeb…9cb529

Release standard

Quality-control rubric

This rubric applies to every episode in the Warren business decision corpus. The dimensions are non-compensating: strength in one dimension cannot offset a blocker in another. Machine findings are generated into each episode's qc.json and the corpus progress.json; a reviewer must also assess whether the cited evidence supports the substance of the narrative.

1. Outcome isolation

Pass only when:

  • Part A states an explicit decision time and a conservative knowledge cutoff;
  • every Part A source, fact, claim, assumption, and model input was public by that cutoff;
  • the Part A directory contains only the fixed allowlist and no symlinks;
  • learner-visible identifiers and titles do not disclose the outcome;
  • Part A is frozen before Part B is authored, and its data and report hashes validate; and
  • a learner evaluation can receive the frozen Part A directory without access to its parent, catalog, episode metadata, or Part B.

Any post-cutoff leakage, outcome-laden learner identifier, or digest mismatch is a blocker.

2. Evidence and provenance

Pass only when:

  • the complete case includes an authoritative financial record, another relevant primary source, and a contemporaneous independent publication;
  • source type and tier agree with policies/source_hierarchy.yaml;
  • publication and public-availability times use the documented precision, with date-only sources conservatively available at 23:59:59 UTC;
  • retrieved bytes and acquisition manifests exist in the immutable artifact store and their hashes, lengths, URI, publisher, title, media type, dates, and accession metadata reconcile to the source ledger; and
  • every evidence span has a useful locator and its exact text or deterministic extracted text verifies against the stored artifact.

Publisher assertions remain assertions. A content hash proves which bytes were reviewed; it does not prove that the bytes are true.

3. Financial reconstruction

Pass only when:

  • every reported number resolves through a metric fact to exact evidence;
  • units, currencies, scopes, period start/end dates, and instant-versus-duration semantics are explicit;
  • as-reported-at-cutoff, later as-reported, restated, and analyst-normalized values use distinct presentation bases;
  • a later restatement supersedes rather than overwrites the earlier fact;
  • unknown values are represented as unknown, never silently as zero;
  • calculations preserve formulas, inputs, assumptions, decimal values, code identity, execution receipts, and validation status; and
  • each adjustment and reconciliation is disclosed, with separate human approval for any material accounting adjustment.

An unreconciled material number, silent restatement, period mismatch, or unsupported model output is a blocker.

4. Claim and uncertainty discipline

Pass only when:

  • facts, management claims, third-party estimates, derived values, assumptions, analyst judgments, conflicts, and unknowns remain distinctly typed;
  • every material or decision-critical claim has supporting evidence and, where relevant, opposing evidence;
  • material assumptions state ranges, rationale, and decision sensitivity;
  • unresolved contradictory evidence is preserved in a conflict record; and
  • important judgments and hypotheses state confidence and a practical falsifier.

Citation volume does not substitute for entailment. A reviewer must verify that each cited span actually supports the claim at the stated level of certainty.

5. Part A decision usefulness

Pass only when Part A provides:

  • a concrete decision owner, decision question, objectives, constraints, and stakeholders;
  • at least two genuinely feasible alternatives, including the status quo where relevant;
  • a reconstruction of the business model, financial capacity, operating drivers, competitive position, disconfirming evidence, and material unknowns;
  • explicit scenarios and assumptions without presenting false precision as forecast fact;
  • a recommendation traceable to evidence and judgment;
  • reversal conditions and measurable leading indicators with definitions, sources, thresholds, and cadence; and
  • a visible list of missing evidence that could change the decision.

A narrative that merely retells history, or an alternative set constructed to make one answer inevitable, requires revision.

6. Part B outcome and causal analysis

Pass only when Part B:

  • records the actual action, dated outcome timeline, and multiple relevant horizons;
  • reconstructs the value bridge without confusing accounting identity with causality;
  • separates decision-process quality from realized outcome;
  • identifies luck, external shocks, later management choices, and measurement changes;
  • presents a primary causal hypothesis as an explicit mechanism chain;
  • presents at least one credible rival hypothesis, opposing evidence, confidence, and falsifiers;
  • evaluates a feasible-at-the-time counterfactual without inventing a quantitative effect;
  • identifies ex-ante observable signals, lead times, and false-positive risks; and
  • states the boundary conditions under which the lesson should not transfer.

Sequence alone is not causal identification. Long-horizon endpoints must not be attributed wholly to the initial decision when later choices or shocks remain unmeasured.

7. Transferable rules

A case may propose a candidate rule only when it states measurable conditions, an action, the mechanism, expected range and horizon, leading indicators, reversal thresholds, and important exceptions. A rule remains case-specific until the corpus contains support from at least two independent episodes and at least one named counterexample. The cross-case index, not an individual teaching note, controls promotion.

8. Rendered-report integrity

Pass only when:

  • both reports are bound to their structured bundles by validated SHA-256 digests;
  • every structured source, evidence, fact, claim, assumption, judgment, conflict, table, model, hypothesis, counterfactual, and rule token resolves;
  • Part A report tokens resolve only within Part A; and
  • tables and prose agree with the authoritative structured records.

An unresolved token is a blocker. A resolved token still requires substantive entailment review under dimension 4.

9. Human governance and lifecycle

research_complete means all machine research gates pass and only required human approvals remain. approved_for_use additionally requires a named, dated publication approval bound to the frozen Part A digest. Material accounting adjustments require a separate approval by an appropriate reviewer. No automated process or research agent may create either approval.

Review disposition

For each dimension, the reviewer records one of:

  • Pass — requirements are met;
  • Revise — no known fabricated evidence, but material work remains; or
  • Block — the episode cannot be used until the cited blocker is resolved.

Warnings must be disclosed and deliberately accepted; they are not silently converted to passes. Publication is permitted only when every dimension passes and the required human approvals are present.